Sustainable Dunblane

The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading body for the assessment of climate change; established by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental, social and economic consequences.


In 2007 the IPCC published their 4th Assessment Report, setting out their current assessment of climate change science.  In this report they stated that they have a very high confidence that the warming of that climate that is being observed is caused by human activity.  When the IPCC say they have very high confidence they define this as meaning they are 90-99% certain.

The IPCC then set out the consequences of these changes in global climate.  None of these consequences are good; all have serious implications for all life on earth including us.

The members of Sustainable Dunblane are not climate change experts so we look to experts like those of the IPCC for our information on climate change - and what they have to say worries us a great deal.  To read about the IPCC and what they have to say about climate change, please click here.

Peak Oil
When humans begin extracting oil from the ground, the rate of production follows a certain pattern.  First the rate of production rises rapidly until production peaks and then the rate of oil production falls into terminal decline – a pattern known as a bell curve.  This pattern has been found to be the same for oil production from wells, fields, regions and countries.  This pattern was first recognised by M. King Hubbert in 1956, who used it to accurately predict that US oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970.

In recent years there has been much debate about when global oil production will peak - a phenomenon known as Peak Oil.  Once Peak Oil has been reached, global oil production will decline.  Optimistic estimates suggest that Peak Oil will occur in 2020 or later.  More pesimistic estimates suggest that Peak Oil has already occured.

As global demand for oil continues to increase, a decline in global oil production is likely to lead to steep rises in the price of oil.  As the global economy depends heavily on oil, this is likely to have serious consequences.

Peak Oil is a subject that provokes fierce debate.  Much of the world’s oil reserves are owned or controlled by nations and corporations, who’s political power is closely linked to the size of the oil reserves they control.  These owners are understandably reluctant to reveal the exact size of their assets for fear of jeopardising their political influence.  As precise data on many of the world’s oil reserves is simply not available, it is hard for experts to determine exactly when Peak Oil will occur.

Peak Oil does not mean that oil will suddenly run out; instead it means that oil prices will rise and the age of cheap, abundantly available oil will come to an end.  Those involved in Transition Town groups feel that Peak Oil adds further vulnerability to our societies which are already at risk from climate change.  In light of this they feel that it is wise to take action now to reduce reliance on oil and move rapidly to sustainable forms of energy.